Predicting Global Dengue Patterns With Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Chinese scientists found that anomalies in tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures can forecast the severity of global dengue outbreaks (1^✔ ✔Trusted Source
Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends

Go to source). The study published in the journal Science suggested that the climate indicator could enhance the forecasting and planning for outbreak responses, Xinhua news agency reported.

Dengue is a mosquito-borne flavivirus disease that affects nearly half the world’s population. Climate events like El Nino are known to influence the dynamics of dengue transmission globally by affecting mosquito breeding.

Understanding Climate Dynamics and Dengue Transmission

Using climate-driven mechanistic models and data on dengue cases reported from 46 countries in Southeast Asia and America, the researchers from Beijing Normal University identified associations between global climate patterns and the seasonal and interannual magnitude of dengue epidemics in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

The study revealed that the model has the ability to make dengue warnings with a significant lead time of up to nine months, which is a substantial improvement over the previous models that could only provide warnings three months in advance.

The findings could allow for more effective planning for outbreak response, but further assessments are needed to evaluate the predictive performance of the model, said Tian Huaiyu from the university, the corresponding author of the paper.

Reference:

1. Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends - (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj4427)

Source-IANS