COVID-19 Could Cause Declines in Life Expectancy: Study

In many regions of the world, COVID-19 pandemic could cause a short-term decline in life expectancy, stated a new study published in PLOS ONE. The study examined the impact of COVID-19-related deaths on life expectancy for four broad world regions across multiple rates of infection and age groups. Life expectancy is used as a measure of human development across countries and regions.

"Our study provides the first assessment of the potential impact of COVID-19 on period life expectancies according to a range of scenarios of prevalence rates over a one-year period," says IIASA researcher Guillaume Marois, who led the study.

IIASA researchers built a microsimulation model that simulates the probability of

• Getting infected by coronavirus
• Dying from COVID-19
• Dying from another cause for a period of one year.

The researchers reconstructed the life tables and life expectancies from the simulation and studied the pandemic's effect on life expectancy.

Study Findings

• At meager prevalence rates, the pandemic did not affect life expectancy
• At prevalence rates of 2%, the pandemic caused a drop in life expectancy in countries with high average life expectancy.
• At higher prevalence rates, the impact on life expectancy was more significant, especially in Europe and North America.

"At 10% prevalence, the loss in life expectancy is likely to be above one year in high life-expectancy countries such as those in Europe and North America. At 50%, it would translate into three to nine years of life lost in high life-expectancy regions. In less developed regions, the impact is smaller given that there is already lower survival at older ages," says Marois. "However, even in the most affected regions, the life expectancy will likely recover once the pandemic is over," he adds.

In many countries, fatality from COVID was decreasing, probably because of a well-defined COVID-19 treatment protocol. This analysis was useful to decision-makers as it showed in broad strokes the potential cost of human lives lost due to the disease.

The researchers point out that the potential overload of health care systems at higher rates of prevalence would inevitably lead to higher mortality. On the other hand, as healthcare providers gain more experience and knowledge in treating the disease, mortality rates may decrease.

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Source-Medindia