COVID-19 Lockdowns and Vaccinations: Are They Complements or Substitutes?

Investigating whether COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccines can act either as substitutes or complements could provide useful insights to policymakers about optimizing public health and economic outcomes. The COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for health and livelihoods. Millions died, and more than one hundred million lost their jobs. The health consequences are familiar and need not be elaborated, except to note that they are heavily concentrated among older populations.

Lockdowns are expensive in terms of lost economic output and lost the freedom to travel, and only a handful of countries succeeded in avoiding widespread infection altogether until the majority had been vaccinated (1^✔ ✔Trusted Source
Should the COVID-19 lockdown be relaxed or intensified in case a vaccine becomes available?

Go to source).

Vaccines are relatively cheap and confer at least partial immunity for some time. Several were invented, tested, and approved in record-breaking time, but it took approximately 6−24 months (depending on the country) to produce and distribute enough to vaccinate everyone who wants it.

That raises the question of what should happen to lockdown intensity during a vaccine rollout. Keeping this in mind, an international team of researchers investigated how lockdown policies and vaccinations should be balanced to optimize public health and economic outcomes during the vaccine roll-out period.

Novel Coronavirus Disease: Delicate Balancing Act Between Health and Economy

The study used a dynamic optimization model that captured both epidemiological and economic considerations, including factors such as vaccination rates, infection rates, and economic losses. The findings were published in the European Journal of Operational Research.

They found that there is no simple answer to the question: vaccinations and lockdowns can be either complements or substitutes depending on various model parameters.

For parameters reflecting conditions in developing countries, lockdowns should typically be relaxed after substantial shares of the population are vaccinated. However, the researchers also found that for slightly different parameter constellations, vastly different lockdown policies may be optimal.

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This study offers a framework for policymakers during the crucial intermediate phase between initial lockdowns and widespread vaccination, providing a valuable tool in planning their pandemic response strategy.

While the period of the vaccine rollouts is now finished concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, considering its immense impact, policymakers must be prepared for possible pandemics in the future.

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Countries invest heavily in maintaining their military capabilities during peacetime as a precautionary and preventive measure. Similarly, it would be wise for nations to allocate resources towards vaccine research and maintaining vaccine production capacity, even though pandemics occur only every few decades.

At least two arguments spring to mind pointing in opposite directions (2^✔ ✔Trusted Source
The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes?

Go to source). One is that since vaccination removes people from the pool of susceptibles, thereby reducing the epidemic’s effective ”reproductive rate” if all else were held equal, one can relax the lockdown commensurately without triggering a resurgence. That approach views vaccines and lockdowns as substitutes; as vaccines arrive, they ease up on lockdowns.

Another view is that harsh lockdowns might not be feasible or desirable for decades on end, but if full vaccination is right around the corner, it would be foolish to risk getting sick now.

Sticking with stiff lockdowns just a little longer might prevent death or lifelong complications of “long COVID”. According to that view, vaccines and lockdowns can be complements. The vaccine increases the appeal of a strict lockdown that would otherwise be prohibitively long and expensive.

References:

1. Should the COVID-19 lockdown be relaxed or intensified in case a vaccine becomes available? - (https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/comments?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0273557)
2. The hammer and the jab: Are COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccinations complements or substitutes? - (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221723003193)

Source-Medindia