Death Rates on the Rise due to Global Warming

Recent estimate suggests that one in three heat-related deaths occur due to Global warming

Human-induced global warming (in which heat played a role) stands responsible for more than a third of all deaths between 1991 and 2018 as per the largest study of its kind at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) Medicine and the University of Bern within the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Global warming is affecting our health in several ways, from direct impacts linked to wildfires and extreme weather, to changes in the spread of vector-borne diseases, among others.

Health Effects of Global Warming/What is Global Warming?
Greenhouse effect causes excessive heat to build up in the earth’s atmosphere causing global warming and affects the environment and health.

‘Recent estimate suggests that one in three heat-related deaths occur due to Global warming with Central and South America and South-East Asia being the most affected regions. However, the study requires further analysis in all world regions including large parts of Africa and South Asia that lacks empirical data.’

Perhaps most strikingly is the increase in mortality and morbidity associated with heat. However, no research has been conducted into what extent these impacts have already occurred in recent decades until now.

Heat-related mortality is defined as the number of deaths attributed to heat, occurring at exposures higher than the optimum temperature for human health, which varies across locations.

Global Warming and Heat-related Mortality

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The study team utilized data from 732 locations in 43 countries around the world through a 'detection & attribution' study that identifies and attributes observed phenomena to changes in climate and weather. This shows the actual contribution of man-made climate change for the first time in increasing mortality risks due to heat.

It was estimated that overall, 37% of all heat-related deaths in the recent summer periods were attributable to the warming of the planet due to anthropogenic activities and this human-induced climate change was highest in Central and South America (up to 76% in Ecuador or Colombia, for example) and South-East Asia (between 48% to 61%).

Post-COVID-19 Global Warming Will Depend on Climate-Friendly Choices
The fall in carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and other emissions by between 10-30% globally and the massive behavioral shifts seen during lockdown will only have a tiny impact on the climate, mainly because the decrease in emissions from confinement measures is temporary.

The number of deaths reported from human-induced climate change was as follows:

136 additional deaths per year in Santiago de Chile, which is a total of 44.3% of total heat-related deaths in the city. Others included 189 in Athens (26.1%), 172 in Rome (32%), 156 in Tokyo (35.6%), 177 in Madrid (31.9%), 146 in Bangkok (53.4%), 82 in London (33.6%), 141 in New York (44.2%), and 137 in Ho Chi Minh City (48.5%).

In the UK, 35% of heat-related deaths could be attributed to human-induced climate change, which corresponds to approximately 82 deaths in London, 16 deaths in Manchester, 20 in West Midlands, or 4 in Bristol and Liverpool every summer season.

These findings further mandate the need to adopt strong mitigation policies to reduce future warming, and implement interventions to protect populations from the adverse consequences of heat exposure.

Effects of Anthropogenic Emission

"We expect the proportion of heat-related deaths to continue to grow if we don't do something about climate change or adapt. So far, the average global temperature has only increased by about 1°C, which is a fraction of what we could face if emissions continue to grow unchecked," says Dr. Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, from the University of Bern and first author of the study.

Depending on the local changes in climate in each area, the vulnerability of its population to heat-related deaths varies. Interestingly, populations living in low and middle-income countries, which were responsible for a minor part of anthropogenic emissions in the past, are those most affected.

"This is the largest detection & attribution study on current health risks of climate change. The message is clear: climate change will not just have devastating impacts in the future, but every continent is already experiencing the dire consequences of human activities on our planet. We must act now," says Professor Antonio Gasparrini from LSHTM, senior author of the study and coordinator of the MCC Network.

However, the study requires further analysis in all world regions including large parts of Africa and South Asia that lacks empirical data.

Source-Medindia