2050 Health Forecast: The Leading Causes of Death Unveiled

Cardiovascular disease will remain the leading cause of mortality for the next 30 years, as it was in 2022, according to a new study published in The Lancet (1^✔ ✔Trusted Source
Cardiovascular disease will remain global top killer in 2050, Alzheimer’s disease among 5 leading causes of death: Study

Go to source). Ischemic heart disease, also known as coronary heart disease, is characterized by blockages in arteries that supply blood to the heart muscle, resulting in heart attacks. In India, things are slightly different. Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), a prevalent lung disease that causes restricted airflow and breathing issues, is expected to become the country’s leading cause of death by 2050, according to research. Ischemic heart disease was ranked second.

Top Causes of Death

The findings suggested that ischemic heart disease would be the leading cause of death in 2022, followed by COPD. In 2050, the top five deaths will be COPD, ischemic heart disease, stroke, diarrhea, and lower respiratory infections. The same conditions caused the most fatalities in 2022 as well.

According to the research, TB, currently the sixth-leading cause of death in 2022, is expected to fall to 12th place by 2050. Falls, road injuries, and self-harm continue to be the leading causes of mortality in India in 2022 and 2050. COVID-19, which was ranked 12th in 2022, will be the 133rd largest cause of death in 2050.

Diabetes, Alzheimers disease, chronic renal disease, and urinary disorders are all expected to increase in prevalence by 2050. Another growing trend in India is a reduction in infectious, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders during the next 30 years. In 2022, diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, newborn illnesses, and COVID-19 remained among the top 15 conditions in this category. By the middle of the century, just three remained: diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and tuberculosis.

Top Five Killers in the World By 2050

Ischemic heart disease, stroke, COPD, Alzheimer’s disease, and chronic kidney disease will be the top five killers in the world by 2050. In 2022, the top three killers remained unchanged. However, lower respiratory illnesses and COVID-19 were the fourth and fifth major causes of mortality that year. Diarrheal illness is projected to rank 13th in 2050, down from 15th in 2022.

The world, like India, is anticipated to see an increase in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) that are not caused by infections. In 2050, NCDs are anticipated to account for 11 of the top 15 causes of death, with two from communicable or infectious diseases and two from accidents.

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In contrast, nine of the top 15 causes of mortality in 2022 were NCDs, including three from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, as well as one from injuries. According to the estimations, COVID-19 will shift from fifth place in 2022 to 133rd place in 2050. The researchers recognize that data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in 2022-23 are still limited because of reporting gaps, and there is uncertainty about the pandemic’s long-term direct and indirect impacts.

"In the absence of data that could indicate future trends in the COVID-19 burden, we assumed that COVID-19 deaths will decline linearly to zero between 2023 and 2030," the authors of the study stated. The study also found that the annual probability of another pandemic of the same scale as the COVID-19 pandemic is 2-3%. This, they added, translates to an 18-26% chance of happening within a decade and a 79-90% chance by 2100.

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Reference:

1. Cardiovascular disease will remain global top killer in 2050, Alzheimer’s disease among 5 leading causes of death: Study - (https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/health/cardiovascular-disease-will-remain-global-top-killer-in-2050-alzheimer-s-disease-among-5-leading-causes-of-death-study-96195)

Source-Medindia