The Bitter Truth: 1.3 Billion People Will Have Diabetes by 2050

It seems like everyone has diabetes these days. It is one of the most common illnesses. An alarming study projects that diabetics will increase from 529 million to 1.3 billion by 2050, with no country, sex, or age group being spared. The study was published in the Lancet.

Advertisement

Diabetes: One of the Leading Causes of Death Worldwide

According to the most recent and comprehensive calculations, the current global prevalence rate is 6.1%, making diabetes one of the top ten major causes of death and disability (1^✔ ✔Trusted Source
Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Go to source). At the super-region level, North Africa and the Middle East have the highest rate of 9.3%, which is expected to rise to 16.8% by 2050. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the percentage is expected to rise to 11.3%.

Advertisement

North African and Middle Eastern People Have the Highest Prevalence of Diabetes

Diabetes was most prevalent in adults 65 and older in all countries, with a prevalence rate of more than 20% for that age worldwide.

The highest prevalence was 24.4% for people aged 75 to 79. In this age range, North Africa and the Middle East had the greatest prevalence at 39.4%, while Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia had the lowest rate at 19.8%.

Advertisement

Obesity: The Most Important Risk Factor for Diabetes

Almost all cases worldwide, that is 96% are type 2 diabetes (T2D). All 16 risk factors assessed were linked to T2D. High BMI was the most important risk factor for T2D, accounting for 52.2% of T2D disability and mortality, followed by dietary risks, environmental/occupational risks, tobacco use, inactivity, and alcohol use.

"The rapid rate at which diabetes is growing is not only alarming but also challenging for every health system in the world, especially given how the disease also increases the risk for ischemic heart disease and stroke," said Dr. Liane Ong, lead author, and Lead Research Scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine.

"While the general public might believe that T2D is simply associated with obesity, a lack of exercise, and a poor diet, preventing and controlling diabetes is quite complex due to a number of factors. That includes someone's genetics and logistical, social, and financial barriers within a country's structural system, especially in low- and middle-income countries."

Where You Live Can Impact Your Diabetes Care

"Some people might be quick to focus on one or a few risk factors, but that approach doesn't take into account the conditions in which people are born and live that create disparities worldwide," said Lauryn Stafford, second author and Post-Bachelor Fellow at IHME.

"Those inequities ultimately impact people's access to screening and treatment and the availability of health services. That's precisely why we need a more complete picture of how diabetes has impacted populations at a granular level."

Researchers used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to investigate the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality of diabetes in 204 countries and territories by age and gender between 1990 and 2021, and then anticipated diabetes prevalence in 2050.

They also gave type 1 diabetes (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) estimations, as well as estimated the proportion of T2D burden owing to 16 risk variables.

Reference:

1. Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 - (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01301-6/fulltext)

Source-Medindia