Calorie labeling in England's food businesses could significantly reduce cardiovascular disease deaths, supporting the need for nationwide implementation.
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Effect of calorie labelling in the out-of-home food sector on adult obesity prevalence, cardiovascular mortality, and social inequalities in England: a modelling study
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Calorie Labels May Cut CVD Deaths in England
The modeling study suggests:- The first estimates of the impact of the current calorie labeling legislation in England, which applies only to large out-of-home food businesses, suggest the policy could prevent or postpone about 730 deaths from cardiovascular diseases between 2022 to 2041.
- Larger health benefits are estimated if the policy were to be implemented in all English out-of-home food businesses, with about 9,200 deaths from cardiovascular diseases potentially prevented over the next 20 years under this scenario.
- With no evidence of the policy contributing to health inequalities, authors say that extending calorie labeling to all out-of-home food businesses could maximize public health benefits as part of a broader England obesity strategy, alongside other policies to narrow the health inequality gap, such as the soft drinks levy.
- The study only looked at obesity rates and deaths from cardiovascular disease, and further research is needed on the cost-effectiveness and unintended negative effects of calorie labeling, such as its impact on eating disorders, to inform future policy decisions in addition to this study. .
‘Did you know? England's menu calorie labeling may prevent around 9,200 cardiovascular deaths over 20 years. #calorielabeling #heartdiseasedeaths #obesity #foodindustry #publichealth’
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“Over one in four adults in England are currently living with obesity, with trends suggesting this is set to increase. Our research estimates that the current calorie labeling legislation will prevent hundreds of deaths from cardiovascular disease over the next 20 years, however, a much larger impact is possible if the government were more ambitious in its aims to tackle the obesity epidemic in England and extended the policy to all out-of-home food businesses,” says Prof Martin O'Flaherty, Professor in Epidemiology, University of Liverpool.
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The authors modeled the estimated effect on obesity rates and cardiovascular disease deaths from 2022 to 2041 of the implementation of mandatory menu calorie labeling in England for two scenarios:
- The actual policy deployment plan in England where only large out-of-home food businesses with 250 or more employees are mandated to have calorie information (this type of business makes up 18% of outlets).
- The deployment of menu calorie labeling in every out-of-home food business in England.
Without any menu calorie labeling policy, the model estimates that cardiovascular disease trends will result in approximately 830,000 deaths by 2041 (within a range of 600,000–1,200,000). However, the current policy is estimated to prevent around 730 of these deaths (within a range of 430–1,300), and if the policy was extended to all out-of-home food businesses in England then about 9,200 deaths could be prevented (within a range of 5,500–16,000), almost 13 times more than the current policy.
The baseline scenario assumed the obesity prevalence in England in 2041 would be 27%. The model estimated that the current policy would reduce obesity prevalence by 0.31 (within a range of 0.10–0.35) percentage points in the next 20 years, but full implementation of the policy would reduce obesity prevalence by 2.65 percentage points (within a range of 1.97–3.24).
Calorie Labeling Impact: Predicting Fewer CVD Fatalities
The model suggests that menu calorie labeling does not widen inequalities in obesity prevalence or cardiovascular disease mortality between different socioeconomic groups, based on existing evidence of equivalent policy effects across socioeconomic groups.“Previous studies have suggested that calorie labeling on menus has a double effect – it allows customers to make informed decisions and choose options with fewer calories whilst also encouraging companies to reduce the calories in their food.
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She continues, “Our results suggest expanding calorie labeling on menus to all English out-of-home food businesses could play an important part in future government strategies to support people in making healthier choices to tackle obesity. However, one policy alone cannot solve England’s obesity crisis. We encourage the government to continue with and strengthen, the England obesity strategy with a wide range of policies, such as calorie labeling, tackling junk food marketing, and the soft drinks industry levy, which will both reduce obesity and narrow the shocking health inequalities gap in our society,”
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Notably, modeling studies include a number of assumptions that can influence the findings, in this case for instance the authors assumed the amounts of energy consumed would not differ by the size of business, and assumed no major changes to BMI prevalence over the next 20 years.
Additionally, there are several other areas of policy impact that this study did not investigate. “Our study only looks at the impact of the policy on obesity prevalence and cardiovascular disease in adults. There may be other benefits that can be difficult to quantify, such as increasing consumer’s knowledge and giving them the opportunity to make informed choices when eating out.
Policymakers must consider multiple factors when making decisions and future research is required about the cost-effectiveness of the policy, the impact on consumers and businesses, as well as the potential unintended negative consequences such as those on eating disorders,” says Prof Eric Robinson, Professor of Psychology, University of Liverpool.
Reference:
- Effect of calorie labelling in the out-of-home food sector on adult obesity prevalence, cardiovascular mortality, and social inequalities in England: a modelling study - (https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(23)00326-2/fulltext)
Source-Eurekalert