Potential Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Future Birth Rate

USA States differed widely in how their fertility rates changed following COVID-19 and were influenced by economic, racial, political, and social factors.

Greater COVID-19 wave severity was associated with a steeper fertility rate decline post-first pandemic wave but the association was reduced when adjusted for other factors such as economic, racial, political, and social factors.

At the start of the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020, Americans chose not to become pregnant as they grappled with stay-at-home restrictions, anxiety, and economic hardship. But a new study published in the journal Human Reproduction shows that some states experienced steeper decreases in fertility than others.

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‘Identifying drivers of differential changes in fertility rates during COVID-19 can help explain variations in demographic shifts across the USA states.’

The findings revealed that nine months after the pandemic began, there were 18 fewer births a month per 100,000 women of reproductive age across the U.S. compared with the year before. After the second wave in 2021, fertility fell by roughly 9 monthly births per 100,000 women, like the rate at which national fertility had been decreasing before the pandemic.

These findings suggest that while the overall national fertility rate rebounded remarkably quickly after the initial COVID-19 wave, the initial declines by the state were as polarized as the country.

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According to the state-specific results, New York State experienced a massive fertility rate decline following the first wave, plunging from a pre-pandemic annual trend of 4 fewer monthly births per 100,000 women of reproductive age to roughly 76 fewer monthly births per 100,000 women.

Delaware saw about 64 fewer monthly births for the same number of women and Maryland had about 55 fewer monthly births per 100,000 women. As they had been in New York, annual fertility rate decreases in these states were in the single digits before the coronavirus outbreak.

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By contrast, following the first wave, Idaho, Montana, and Utah experienced a boost of up to 56 additional births each month per 100,000 women of reproductive age. This is even though fertility rates in these areas had also been trending downward in the years leading up to the pandemic.

For the research, the study team analyzed data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Bureau of Vital Statistics, the 2020 U.S. Census, and the University of Virginia 2021 population estimates, to calculate fertility rate trends after each COVID-19 wave.

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The team then examined whether coronavirus case rates or other factors were the main drivers of fertility rate changes. Contrary to their expectation, the severity of the coronavirus wave in each state appeared to have had little bearing on changes in that state’s fertility rate.

Rather, demographic factors like racial composition and economic factors, including greater income inequality, a higher percentage of college-degree earners, and large drops in employment at the start of the pandemic, negatively impacted rates.

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They then examined states’ political leaning and a measure called the social distancing index (SDI), which tracked changes in people’s mobility following the first wave. They found that states with stronger social distancing responses and that were politically liberal had larger fertility rate declines following the first wave of the pandemic.

While these issues have always been linked with decisions about having children, they were magnified by the pandemic, highlighting the need to address underlying social factors that constrain people’s ability to grow their families, especially during times of crisis.

Future research might examine more personal factors that influence decisions around pregnancy during times of crisis, such as student debt, job security, and access to childcare, in addition to existential concerns about climate change and political instability.

Source-Eurekalert